Chinese steel market against the trend upward this week will surge high fall

, driven by the sudden environmental policies and reduce the supply support, domestic hong kong-listed in sino-us trade war began, the national under the condition of high temperature and wet seasonal off-season market, out of a wave of contrarian upside, hitting a year high screw main contract, the spot price of steel billet is up 120 yuan, the finished material spiral rose an average of one hundred yuan.But with the release of good news, the stimulus from environmental policies is waning, and demand is weakening, langer experts said, adding that this week’s rally in steel prices will be a highly likely event.

Last week, the steel market was significantly affected by the news.Although Mr Trump finally fired the first shot of a trade war and then imposed tariffs on China’s rmb200bn worth of goods, triggering an emergency flight to safety in commodity markets, futures markets plunged.However, with the end of profit margin, in the environmental policy has been tightened again, coupled with the inventory double reduction and other good news, the market has been magically reversed.

On July 11, tangshan ecological environment protection work leading group formally issued by the implementation of SO2, NO2, CO, pollution reduction crucial action notice (hereinafter referred to as the “notice”), action for 43 days.Although began on July 20, and the steel mill how to limit production is not finalized, but the tangshan is the country’s hong kong-listed trend indicator, all associated with tangshan will have great influence to the national environmental protection policy.

In addition, the underlying performance also exceeded expectations.As some construction sites rushed to work, the downstream demand showed the characteristics of weak season;The present situation and expectation of reduced supply also have strong support for steel market.According to cisa, crude steel output of key steel enterprises in late June was 1.955 million tons per day, down 356 thousand tons from the previous month, down 1.79%.China’s production is expected to average 2.4919 million tons per day, down 36,800 tons from October and down 1.45 percent.The opening rate of blast furnaces in the country’s 100 small and medium-sized steel companies was 86.27 percent, down 0.84 percentage points from the previous week, according to langer iron & steel.China’s steel stocks and steel stocks have both declined.The social pool construction steel and sheet stock is 8.382 million tons, down 172000 tons, a week before the decline and the week before was flat, especially construction steel in the early stage of the growth, slightly and falling for two weeks.According to cisa data, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises in late June was 11.491 million tons, a drop of 24,600 tons compared with the previous month, or 0.22%.Steel mills’ inventories are also relatively low.

By the close of trading on Friday, the contract had reached a new high of 3,995 yuan, 83 yuan higher than the previous high of 3,912 yuan set on March 2.In terms of spot price, the price of steel billets has increased by 120 yuan, the average price of finished products has increased by 100 yuan, and the price of plate has increased slightly.

The upward momentum in steel prices began to fade over the weekend.On Friday, the end of the period of a large number of short positions, the increase narrowed considerably.At the same time, a price significantly impeded, market trading volume is weeks ago days obvious atrophy, spot billet sensitive varieties such as price first back, part of the core city steel spot prices also fell.

Lange steel net horsepower, chief analyst, as the news release, the stimulating effect of the environmental policy in the weakened, and the summer high temperature and rainy weather have certain influence to the rigid demand, combined with the rectification is completed, with limited production enterprise resources into or increase, this week is expected hong kong-listed high back is a big probability event.

According to power, environmental protection bureau of jiangsu province last week issued a about in accordance with the law to limit the production, the production control enterprise and production of the notice, the early stage of the main content is due to environmental issues by restricting output, the production enterprise, after modification, achieve the related emission standards, the enterprise can resume production by oneself, no longer need approval by the competent department of.This file, have completed most of the jiangsu region limit production, production of steel mill, or start production quickly, this week production is expected to more than three months of jiangsu xuzhou region major steel mills will have focus resources on the market, other cities are distributed steel mills will also expand production, this led to hong kong-listed especially early to the national construction steel market in east China is not a good news.

In addition, financial data released on Friday was not good, and the state council general office issued documents to further strengthen the construction of urban rail transit planning management, strict controls of local government debt risk, it is also a concern for the late steel demand.

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